Are San Jose Home Prices Dropping?

The short answer

San Jose’s single-family median sale in October 2026 was $1,575,000, according to the Santa Clara County Association of REALTORS October 2026 statistics. A year earlier, in the October 2025 report, that median was $1,600,000.

That is a modest year-over-year dip in the middle sale — about 1.6% — not a collapse. From September to October, the San Jose median barely moved at all, from $1,568,888 to $1,575,000, per the September 2026 report.

The county picture is different. The Santa Clara County single-family median in October 2026 was $2,010,000, up from $1,910,000 in October 2025. A median is the middle closed sale in that month. It is not an appraisal of your house, and a one-month swing often reflects which properties closed, not a sudden change in value on every block.

The more useful story in this report is inventory, the pace of sales, and the fact that houses that sold still averaged at or a little above list. For a shorter overview, see the market notes. What follows is the October detail.

San Jose and the county did not move together

It is easy to treat “the South Bay market” as one number. The association’s city table does not.

San Jose is the largest sample, and its October single-family median was slightly lower than a year ago. The county median was higher, pulled by whatever mix of higher-priced cities closed that month. Palo Alto, Los Altos, and Cupertino are in the same county report as Campbell and south San Jose. They do not price the same way.

If you are buying or selling in San Jose, use San Jose, then the neighborhood, then the street. A county median is context. It is not a list price.

The bigger change is how many houses are for sale

San Jose had 630 single-family homes listed at the end of October 2026, compared with 409 in October 2025. Closed single-family sales were 307, down from 377 a year earlier.

Countywide, current single-family inventory was 1,225, up from 888. Closed sales were 669, down from 757.

That is a real shift: more to look at, and fewer closings. It is not a market where sold homes were being given away. San Jose single-family sales in October averaged 102% of list price and 26 days on market, compared with 103% and 23 days a year earlier. The county averaged 104% of list in both Octobers, with average days on market of 23 versus 24.

More listings give buyers a longer shortlist. They do not automatically make a well-priced house on a known street in Willow Glen a negotiation. The leverage, when it exists, is usually in condition, time on market, and a list price that already looks high against the last few comparable sales.

Condos and townhomes are a different market

The association reports condos and townhomes separately, and they should stay separate in your head.

The San Jose condo and townhome median in October 2026 was $707,000, compared with $815,500 in October 2025. Average days on market were 50, versus 42 a year earlier, and sales averaged 99% of list. Countywide, the condo and townhome median was $900,000, compared with $964,188 a year earlier, with an average of 41 days on market.

If you are buying or selling a condo, do not borrow a single-family median to make yourself feel better or worse. Price and offer against the same kind of building, on the same kind of street.

Nearby cities, with a caution about small numbers

October medians in smaller cities move around because a handful of sales can change the middle number.

Los Gatos recorded a $2,800,000 single-family median on 27 sales, compared with $3,200,000 on 31 sales a year earlier, with 76 homes listed versus 53. Sunnyvale was $2,668,000 on 41 sales, compared with $2,736,500 on 48 sales, and still averaged 110% of list. Santa Clara was $1,920,000 on 33 sales, compared with $2,010,000 on 38 sales a year earlier, with inventory at 54 versus 26.

Those year-over-year median changes are worth a glance. They are not a verdict on a specific address. A city with two or three dozen closings in a month is a small sample. The last similar sale on the same street is still the number that matters.

If you are buying

You have more to tour than you did last fall. Use that. Walk the house on a weekday, read the disclosures, and compare it with what actually closed nearby, not with a headline about prices “dropping.”

A modest dip in the San Jose median does not mean a clean house will accept a low opening bid. It may mean you can be more selective, and that a house which has been sitting deserves a closer look at why.

If you want help reading a specific listing against the October comps, start with Johnny.

If you are selling

The first two weeks still do most of the work. A price that needs “the market to catch up” in the spring usually becomes a reduction, and reductions in this county get read as a story.

October’s report says a well-matched price can still produce a sale in about four weeks, on average, and still at or a little above list. It also says buyers have more alternatives than they did a year ago. That is an argument for a precise number, not for waiting on a citywide median to bounce.

If you want a valuation against the sales that match your house, request that read.